Siena Research InstituteTier 1high
Siena poll of likely voters: Hochul 50%, Blakeman 41%, little changed from 49-39 in August; independents lean Blakeman 44-39, and voters say 51-30 that Trump's endorsement hurts him
Siena surveyed 1,144 likely voters Sept. 11-17 (MOE ±3.9). Hochul leads 50-41 with 9% undecided. Her job approval is 48-47 and favorability 48-46; Blakeman is 35-34 favorable with 31% having no opinion. Two-thirds of likely voters, including 37% of Republicans, expect Hochul to win. Voters oppose building large data centers in their area after the moratorium ends, 63-25.
Related fact-checks
A new poll shows Hochul leading Blakeman 49%-37% (Moxie Strategies, 813 voters, MOE ±4.3)Unverified"All of the polls we have seen in the last two months have us virtually tied with Kathy Hochul." — Bruce Blakeman, Aug 13, 2026, disputing the Siena likely-voter pollMostly FalseA July 2026 poll shows Hochul leading Blakeman by only 47-41.Unverified
More on polls
Quinnipiac University Poll · Sep 23, 2026Quinnipiac's first poll of the race: Hochul 58%, Blakeman 39% among likely voters, a 19-point margin released hours after Siena showed 9Political Wire · Sep 21, 2026A "Moxie Strategies" poll circulated Sept. 19 puts Hochul at 49% and Blakeman at 37% with 14% other/undecided among 813 voters (MOE ±4.3); no field dates, sponsor or methodology have been published, so The Civic Pulse is not logging it in the poll trackerFingerlakes1.com (campaign release) · Sep 8, 2026Blakeman campaign releases a McLaughlin internal showing Hochul 49.6, Blakeman 45.7 among 800 likely voters (Aug 27-31); release omits margin of error, mode and question wording
Source: Siena Research Institute · Sep 23, 2026 · Credibility Tier 1 · Permalink https://reviewhochul.com/news/siena-poll-hochul-50-blakeman-41-2026-09-23
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