Siena: Hochul leads Blakeman 49-39 in first likely-voter poll — lead halved from June

Siena's first likely-voter poll of the cycle (811 LV, Aug 3-6, MOE +/-4.2) has Hochul up 49-39 — half her 52-32 June lead among registered voters. Blakeman leads the suburbs 49-41 and independents 45-40; Hochul leads NYC 64-19. Blakeman's favorability improved to 33-26, though 40% still don't know enough about him. Voters prefer Hochul on affordable housing (+16) and prices (+7); 52-25 support her data-center moratorium. Likely-voter screens typically tighten races, but this is the closest public head-to-head from a nonpartisan pollster this cycle.