Siena Research InstituteTier 1high
Siena: Hochul leads Blakeman 49-39 in first likely-voter poll — lead halved from June
Siena's first likely-voter poll of the cycle (811 LV, Aug 3-6, MOE +/-4.2) has Hochul up 49-39 — half her 52-32 June lead among registered voters. Blakeman leads the suburbs 49-41 and independents 45-40; Hochul leads NYC 64-19. Blakeman's favorability improved to 33-26, though 40% still don't know enough about him. Voters prefer Hochul on affordable housing (+16) and prices (+7); 52-25 support her data-center moratorium. Likely-voter screens typically tighten races, but this is the closest public head-to-head from a nonpartisan pollster this cycle.
Related fact-checks
Blakeman says he will cut utility rates in half by signing an "emergency order" lifting New York's fracking banMostly False"There were no deaths at the hands of ICE in Nassau County." — Bruce Blakeman, Capital Tonight, Aug 26, 2026Half True"Our electric bills are 70% higher than the national average." — Bruce Blakeman, Livingston County GOP rally, Avon, reported Aug 19, 2026Half True
More on campaign
NY1 / State of Politics · Sep 30, 2026Blakeman pitches income-tax exemption for earners under $50K single / $100K joint (about $4,000 a year, paid for by redirecting immigrant and refugee aid); Hochul cites no income or corporate tax increases and her rebatesNYS Focus · Sep 30, 2026NYS Focus review finds Blakeman's matching-funds requests included more than 2,600 ineligible donations worth about $860K in potential match; the board did not answer questions about his contributionsNY1 / State of Politics · Sep 29, 2026Hochul campaign says it raised more than $8.5M in September, $5.9M of it for the state Democratic Party; figures are campaign-announced, not yet a BOE filingNew York Public News Network via WAMC (Jon Campbell) · Sep 25, 2026Hochul says she will campaign with Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at multiple events before Election Day as AOC starts a statewide tour; Blakeman says the more AOC campaigns for Hochul, the better his chances
Source: Siena Research Institute · Aug 12, 2026 · Credibility Tier 1 · Permalink https://reviewhochul.com/news/siena-likely-voter-poll-49-39-aug-2026
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